Hyperscaler capex guidance
▲ Bullish
4 of 5 held or raised
Microsoft trimmed, on leases and timing. Bearish on cuts not explained by leases or timing · bullish on raises · Favours Chips & equipment
Big-five capex / OCF
▼ Bearish
95%
Bearish above 100% while guidance still rises: the rest is borrowed or raised · Favours Hyperscalers (below 80%)
Big-five capex, latest quarter
▲ Bullish
$230B
Bearish on the first quarter-on-quarter fall · Favours Chips & equipment
TSMC monthly revenue YoY
▲ Bullish
+55%
Bearish below +20% for two months running · Favours Foundry & memory
$3.02/hr
Bearish if rents fall while capex keeps rising: a glut · Favours GPU clouds
