The AI build-out

The spending is real. The payoff isn't proven yet.

Researched 2 Nov 2026

Big-five capex / OCF95% as of 4 Nov 2026

Backlog, big four~$2.5T

Nvidia data centre YoY+117%

TSMC revenue YoY+55%

H100 rent$3.02/hr

NA data-centre vacancy1.4%

The spending engine

Five companies set the pace for everything below them. Their capex has roughly tripled in two years, and it now takes most of the cash their businesses generate: Amazon and Oracle spend more than they make and borrow or issue shares for the rest.

Capex per quarter, US$B
Combined capex ÷ operating cash flow above each bar

Source: SEC filings via the data API, as of 4 Nov 2026. Fiscal quarters ending in each calendar quarter (Oracle's end in Feb, May, Aug and Nov); cash capex, finance leases left out.✦ sovereignoptimist.com

Capex as a share of operating cash flow
Past the line, the rest is borrowed or raised

Source: data API, as of 4 Nov 2026, last twelve months✦ sovereignoptimist.com

What they guided

Every company but Microsoft held or raised its 2026 number in October, and Microsoft's trim came from leases moving off the capex line and delayed third-party capacity, not from less demand. For 2027 the language is "meaningfully more" and "increase significantly", with figures due on the Q4 calls.

Capex over the last twelve months, US$B
Faded: 2026 guidance

Source: data API, as of 4 Nov 2026, last twelve months; guidance from releases and calls (2°) to 30 Oct 2026, hover for its basis. Meta's guide includes lease principal; Oracle's is its fiscal year to May 2027.✦ sovereignoptimist.com

MSFT 2027: No FY27 total; the December quarter above $50B (2°)
AMZN 2027: "Meaningfully more" in 2027 (call, 2°)
GOOGL 2027: "Increase significantly" in 2027, details on the Q4 call (2°)
META 2027: No 2027 number; details on the Q4 call
ORCL 2027: Peaks in FY27–28, steps down in FY29 (Investor Day)